USAID says findings will influence food program for Horn of Africa; IPCC author says panel will consider the results in next climate assessment
Rising global temperatures could trigger more extreme drought conditions in the coming decades in East Africa, U.S. researchers have concluded. Their findings contradict earlier research from a United Nations science panel and could have far-reaching consequences for American food aid.
The researchers, who reported their conclusions in the journal Climate Dynamics, used data spanning six decades to show that rising sea surface temperatures from emissions of human origin have created an intensification of air circulation in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, also known as the “Walker cell.”
This strengthening has caused the circulation to swell westward toward the African coast, boosting heat transfer in the atmosphere and triggering greater rainfall and cloud cover over the Indian Ocean over the past 30 years.
The study finds that warm and dry winds have moved west toward Africa’s coast, inhibiting rainfall, particularly in parts of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia from March to June, one of the main growing seasons.
Chris Funk, a climatologist with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and researcher at the University of California, Santa Barbara, who led the study, said in an interview that this drought pattern can be expected regularly in the future — even during both rainy seasons, they now believe.
He and co-author Park Williams, a postdoctoral researcher at U.C. Santa Barbara, have submitted follow-up results for potential publication.
Their research will influence food aid and development funding to the estimated 17.5 million food insecure people living in the region’s three most afflicted countries — Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia — according to officials from the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), which funded the study.
“We take very seriously the picture this new research is painting for the Horn of Africa,” Gary Eilerts, program manager of the FEWS NET, told SolveClimate News. “The situation it describes will certainly make food insecurity more fragile in the already extremely vulnerable region.”
Prior research by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed that there will be more rain over East Africa, not less.
But at least over the past two decades — and particularly since the year 2000 — dry spells in the Horn of Africa have become more severe and much more frequent, according to data collected from the NOAA Satellite and Information Service.
Droughts that once appeared every decade, now strike almost yearly, says Oxfam, the international aid group. Some estimates say precipitation has decreased by as much as 30 percent in some areas such as Sudan, over the last four decades.
The 2009 drought, the fifth consecutive one to grip East Africa, was described by Oxfam as the worst humanitarian crisis in East Africa in more than a decade.